Natural resources and conflict in Africa: what do the data show?

The empirical relationship between natural resources and conflict in Africa is not very well understood. Using a novel geocoded dataset we are able to construct a quasi-natural experiment to explore the causal effects of oilfield and mineral discoveries on intra-state armed conflict in Africa at the grid-cell level corresponding to a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude. We find no evidence of resource discoveries triggering conflict after controlling for property rights institutions, past discoveries, grid-cell and year fixed effects, grid-cell specific trends, and country-year fixed effects. Resource discoveries are associated with improved local living standards and increased political patronage both of which reduce conflict. We observe little or no heterogeneity in the relationship across resource types, discovery size, distance to discovery and borders, and institutions. The relationship remains unchanged at higher grid-cell resolution, and regional and national levels

Essays on natural resources in Africa: local economic development, multi-ethnic coalitions and armed conflict

This thesis consists of three stand-alone papers. It examines the economic and political effects of natural resources in Africa. In the first paper, we investigate the effect of mining activity on subnational economic development by using satellite data on night lights as a measure of economic development. We find that mineral production and discovery improves local economy. However, we do not observe (strong) general equilibrium effect beyond the confines of a district. In the second paper, we test the link between natural resources and multiethnic power sharing coalitions in Africa. We find that resource discoveries and rising commodity prices increase the probability of representation at the executive branches of government. Our finding supports the idea that resource discoveries and rising commodity prices provide rulers with more revenues to expand the state cabinet sizes; hence they build broader multi-ethnic coalitions. In the third paper, we investigate the association between natural resources and intra-state local armed conflict in Africa. We find that natural resource discoveries do not trigger armed conflict in Africa at the local level. Consistent with the finding in the first paper (positive economic effect) and second paper (positive political effect), resource discovery appears to reduce the likelihood of armed conflict by increasing the opportunity cost of joining armed rebellion

Resource discovery and conflict in Africa: what do the data show?

The empirical relationship between natural resources and conflict in Africa is not very well understood. Using a novel geocoded dataset on resource discovery and conflict we are able to construct a quasi-natural experiment to explore the causal effect of (giant and major) oil and mineral discoveries on conflict in Africa at the grid level corresponding to a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree covering the period 1946 to 2008. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find no evidence of natural resources triggering conflict in Africa after controlling for grid-specific fixed factors and time varying common shocks. Resource discovery appears to have improved local income measured by nightlights which could be reducing the conflict likelihood. We observe little or no heterogeneity in the relationship across resource type, size of discovery, pre and post conclusion of the cold war, and institutional quality. The relationship remains unchanged at the regional and national levels

Intensive and extensive margins of mining and development: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

What are the economic consequences of mining in Sub-Saharan Africa? Using a panel of 3,635 districts from 42 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1992 to 2012 we investigate the effects of mining on living standards (measured by night-lights and household/cohort characteristics from Demographic and Health Surveys) and public service provisions (from Afrobarometer). Night-lights increase in mining districts when mineral production expands (intensive margin), but large effects are mainly associated with new discoveries and new production (extensive margin). We identify the effect by carefully choosing feasible but not yet mined districts as a control group. In addition, we exploit first, single-first, giant and major discoveries as exogenous news shocks. Mines in Africa exhibit enclave characteristics as we find little evidence of significant spillovers to other districts